What was Arizona thinking?

C’mon, Josh Byrnes clearly has a screw loose.  Aren’t MLB stats widely available on that thing called the Internet?  Check out Dunn’s stats at Chase Field over the bulk of his career.  Not pretty…

Adam Dunn at Chase Field

Okay, not the biggest of sample sizes.  Let’s move on.  Perhaps more telling is Dunn’s home and away splits around the place he’s leaving – the Great American Ball Park.  Outside of 2005, Dunn’s road performance has matched his home numbers each year, suggesting Adam Dunn is capable of doing what he does best whilst playing half of his remaining games in AZ (that is, hit home runs and walk).  Couple that with the motivation of finally playing for a contender, and I think we’ll see a fantasy force down the stretch.

Dunn's Home/Away Splits with Cincinatti

Who’s swinging with authority?

The tables are sorted by who is leading the Majors in LD% and HR/FB on the season (based on at least 80 plate appearances).  Placing high in one or the other does not guarantee success, but the supporting numbers do reflect upon each player’s real skill.

In putting together these tables, I partitioned the last four columns by 20th percentiles, whereby arrows are allocated based on where the player ranks:

Definitions

xBABIP = LD% + .120
Difference = xBABIP – BABIP
Adj FB% = FB% – IFFB%

Of interest….

Ryan Ludwick – the only man to make both lists.  That his line drive rate and HR/FB are both in the top 20th percentiles respectively is great; however, accentuating this is Ludwick’s Adjusted FB% of 36.8%.  He’s hitting in the air and he’s hitting it hard – no flubbers to be found here.  Indeed, not bad for someone who went undrafted in most mixed leagues…

Marcus Thames – notice the polar opposite in LD% and HR/FB rates.  Given he’s 15th highest MLB rate for straight FB% at 50.3% and in the bottom 20th percentile in GB%, its safe to say Marcus is swinging from the hip.  Take his 30% strikeout rate (that’s nearly a strikeout a game) and you know where this is going.

Jason Werth – Worthless against righties, but is a fantasy starter against southpaws.

Ian Stewart – Leading the league with a ridiculous .467 BABIP, Stewart has had some bad luck on his side – that his xBABIP is still 8th best in the league shows he can still keep it up.  Playing time is an issue, but Stewart will pay dividends in 2009.

Omar Infante – enjoying Chipper’s absence, Omar is leading the league in LD% to date.  That his BABIP stands at .333 on the season with relatively high three year rate of .311 suggests he can continue to produce if given the chance.

Sean Casey – third in LD% and last in HR/FB, with a decent Adj FB%, means Casey’s hitting the ball in the sweet spot, but its simply not going anywhere…this level swinging 34 year old needs to hit the weight room.

Chris Shelton – check out his xBABIP, then check out his Difference between real and expected.  Couple that with his numbers in Oklahoma this year and you have to wonder when Shelton is going to get his chance.  Damn the lefthanded pitcher!

Notes:

League Average xBABIP = 2.1%
League Average LD% = 20.0%
League Average Adj FB% = 26.5%
League Average HR/FB = 9.3%

Marlon Byrd

The hottest guy not owned in our league at the moment is Georgia Tech alum, Marlon Byrd.  While spending a career on most mixed leagues’ waiver wire, Byrd has put together three solid weeks after finally getting some uninterrupted playing time.  With Milton Bradley nursing a strained quad and David Murphy off to the nurses room after his Pudge collision today, Byrd will be given every opportunity to showcase what’s left in the 30 year old tank.

Byrd has been a fringe every day player since his semi-breakout 2003 season.  His downfall has been a below average career BB/K and pedestrian HR/FB rate, resulting in a #5 or #6 fantasy outfield label.  So what’s changed lately suggesting a possible turnaround?

For starters, he’s become more selective at the plate.  In the last 30 days, he’s had 6 punchouts in 81 at bats, while walking 13 times; his BB/K rate over the same period (2.2) places him 7th best overall amongst regulars (those with at least 30 AB’s).  While his line drive rate has improved slightly, on the season and especially of late, his BABIP has been well below league average and his own expected BABIP, which might suggest continued success…..that is until we look at his home/road splits since donning the red, white, and blue.  Note the difference since joining Texas.

Byrd soars at home...

The number of AB’s per HR is just one symptom highlighting a huge split between games in the Arlington bandbox and those played at other parks.  If you’re in a daily transaction league and short an OF, consider plugging Byrd in while he’s starting in home games – otherwise, look elsewhere for help.

Hart and DeJesus

Two players, Corey Hart and David DeJesus, have taken a similar downward turns since July began.

A closer look shows their return to form may likely follow the same paths, as well.

Hart: the line drive rate has actually been better over the last 30 days than it has over the season.  Coupled with a steady BB/K rate, Hart’s expected BABIP predicts a return to form.

DeJesus: similarly, David’s LD% has increased surpassed his season rate over the last 30 days.  Injuries to his back and ankle are likely playing into this funk; DeJesus’ Adjusted FB% (FB%-IFFB%) has decreased significantly, showing his contact is slightly off or he’s swinging from the hip.  He won’t sniff his expected BABIP, but it does highlight where a healthy DeJesus will head.

What round did you draft your catcher?

In light of Inge taking over the full time role behind the plate in Detroit, I thought I’d have a peak at who the top catchers are thus far in ‘08.  A drafting principle I stick by every year is leaving the last pick for my catcher slot.  In a points league, there’s simply no reason to take a catcher in the first 3/4 rounds.  Even if you’ve filled out your starting lineup, the best bet is to target upside reserves rather than wasting a pick on your catcher.  Granted, McCann is a solid bet and Martin is proving no fluke, but you’d have to cash in a high draft pick to get them.  The position is far too injury prone, platoonable, and plain unpredictable.

This season I grabbed Suzuki in the last round, rode him through a hot April, and then dumped him for a surging Doumit.  I guess that’s the rub; there’s always serviceable catching material to be found on the waiver wire in the first couple months of the season.  As mentioned, catchers are a fickle bunch and are quickly replaced by the hot (or healthy) bat.

You don’t draft catchers for speed, so I’ve ranked them below by HR.  In a 12 team league, many of these players would start the season undrafted.

20/20 Club

Remember when membership to the vaunted 20/20 club was an accomplishment to revere?  The table below outlines those crossing the threshold over the last calendar year, separated by those who nearly made it.

In The Club

Hanley Ramirez: the Roto Authority made a case for Hanley going #1 in next year’s draft, and the numbers above don’t refute it.

Nate McLouth: He’s dropped off over the last month, but his LD/GB/FB rates have remained constant with his seasonal percentages so he should bounce back.

Chris Young: The numbers lie.  Young’s 2007 season accounts for his inclusion.  He’s averaging nearly 3x K’s for every walk over the past calendar year, while this season has seen his BA drop even further.  I’d like to say he’s been unlucky, but his expected BABIP is only marginally better than his actual BABIP in 2008.

Brandon Phillips: quietly putting up another nice campaign in 2008 and looks like a perennial 20/20 candidate.

Corey Hart: I just traded for this guy and expect good things (M. Cabrera & Duchscherer for Harden & Hart).  He’s actually been unlucky this season, but his BB/K (16%) in 2008 has been worse than Young’s.

On The Fringe

Lance Berkman: Doesn’t Lance seem older than he is (31)?  For a guy who’s clocked double digit swipes this season, Lance is ripening well.

Matt Holliday: there’s been much ink written on his fantasy value if traded out of Colorado.  While not a top 10 overall pick if traded, he’s still arguably a top 10 outfielder.  Check out his away splits below; in rough terms, you can multiply by 2 to see his overall seasonal production out of Colorado.  I’ve projected 2008 based on 76 away games:

Jason Werth: underrated going into 2008.  If you extrapolate his 2007 numbers (he played 94 games), Werth would have been at 14HR/12SB.  As it stands, he’s on pace for 29HR/23SB.

Curtis Granderson: an off May and early June have hurt his seasonal numbers, and he’s only stolen one bag in July.  That said, he’s seen his BA jump 50 points since mid-June and his LD% rise 5% in July.

Edit: percentage stats used in the commentary above are actually 3 days old, whereas the tables are current. [07/30/08]

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Edwin Encarnacion

Patrick DiCaprio at The Fantasy Baseball Generals noted the “special” season Edwin Encarnacion is having in Cincinnati, whereby his RBI total (41) is completely out-of-whack with his 19 home runs.  Of those with 19 or more HR’s, only Hanley Ramirez has a worse RBI/HR total.  This is worth nothing more than trivia, as RBI’s reflect zero on a player’s skill, but it did get me thinking about what kind of 2nd half we can expect from the 3B.  As highlighted, Edwin has been unlucky in the RBI column and a passing glance at his BABIP might suggest he’s been unlucky overall, but I think the contrary is evident.  His BABIP on the season stands at .269, a full 30 points lower than league average.  The telling number, however, is Edwin’s line drive rate on the year.  His LD% is a meager 14.3%, which translates to an expected BABIP of .263; *lower* than his already low seasonal number.  Ouch.

The kicker is Edwin’s punchless FB%.  Let me explain.  Of players with over 200 AB’s on the season, Edwin has the fifth highest fly ball percentage at 52%.  This is not inherently a bad thing if you can pull it off (Giambi @ 52%, Uggla @ 53%), but Edwin can’t.  Over 1/5 of his FB’s aren’t leaving the infield.  Of the same player pool, he’s placing 3rd highest in infield fly ball percentage (22%).  That he’s hit 7 home runs in the last 30 days does not support his batted ball statistics.

Broken Images

I’m a heavy Firefox user.  In fact, the only time I bust out Internet Explorer is when I use work-specific applications which don’t support the Mozilla browser.  It is this omission that has caused me a bit of grief in my posting – for some reason Firefox formats my posts beautifully while IE is dropping random broken images throughout.  I am no HTML wizard.  When I see funky “greasedLightbox” references in my code, I assume it’s because WordPress has its finger on the open source pulse, as Greased Lightbox is one of my favorite Greasemonkey scripts.  As it turns out, these “greasedLightbox” entries are screwing things up. 

I’ve gone back and deleted them from each post, hopefully eliminating the broken images problem.  Lesson learned!

Zack Greinke

Chris Mulligan over at Behind The Plate wrote up an article on the recent prospects of Zack Greinke, and he pretty much nails it with the commentary.  Greinke is an enigma.  In his last 6 starts, his LD% is 5% higher than his seasonal rate and his WHIP has jumped significantly, but his GB% has gone up as well, which suggests perhaps he’s been giving up more seeing-eye balls through the infield.  Greinke’s 30-day BABIP is over 100 points on his seasonal number (.448 vs .315) and his expected BABIP (.288), so he will get better.  Let’s not forget this guy threw 9 quality starts in his first 11 games this year; in fact, he’s tied for 4th in quality starts amongst all major leaguers this year.  And as Chris alluded to, Greinke’s K/9 over the last 6 games has remained high at 10.9, in contrast to his low BB/9 of 2.2.

Closer Extrapolation

While sorting through some legacy pitching stats, I noticed something pretty cool.  If you compile numbers from the last 3 year calendar years, regular closers who had more than 75 saves threw between 173 – 228 innings.  During the last calendar year, starting pitchers in the top third of innings pitched, ripped off between 146 – 250 innings.

In short, with regards to innings pitched and with a little imagination:

SP’s          RP’s
—–    =    —–
1yr           3yrs

The cool part is when you look at the relief pitchers; the numbers could pass for single season starter stats.  The table below is sorted by Wins.  Check out Joe Nathan and his 16-3 record and 1.63 ERA (more importantly, look at his SV-BS ratio – yikes).  And how bad was Borowski?  Granted these are less skill-driven statistical categories, but fun nonetheless.

Name	Team	W	L	ERA	SV	BS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	WHIP	WPA
Joe Nathan	Twins	16	3	1.63	116	10	209.1	134	12	51	260	0.88	13.0
Francisco Cordero	Reds	16	12	3.32	102	27	211.2	184	17	89	250	1.29	2.33
Mariano Rivera	Yankees	15	14	2.13	108	9	228.2	183	10	34	217	0.95	11.1
J.J. Putz	Mariners	15	7	2.54	84	12	191.2	145	12	50	226	1.02	9.68
Huston Street	Athletics	13	9	3.20	84	21	194.0	157	17	47	201	1.05	5.02
Jonathan Papelbon	Red Sox	12	9	1.76	102	14	205.0	137	15	52	245	0.92	11.4
Takashi Saito	Dodgers	11	6	1.86	80	9	184.0	115	9	48	238	0.89	9.44
Jason Isringhausen	Cardinals	10	14	3.53	88	20	183.1	144	22	91	155	1.28	-0.87
Chad Cordero	Nationals	10	9	3.29	79	17	175.1	155	26	59	151	1.22	3.05
Bobby Jenks	White Sox	9	10	2.96	106	15	204.0	167	11	65	197	1.14	6.81
Jose Valverde	Astros	9	10	3.78	103	17	190.1	157	24	72	237	1.20	4.34
Brad Lidge	Phillies	9	10	3.40	93	15	214.2	170	20	96	291	1.24	4.77
Joe Borowski	Indians	9	16	4.68	87	23	182.2	189	23	68	147	1.41	-0.18
Francisco Rodriguez	Angels	7	11	2.45	150	16	213.1	154	15	108	271	1.23	11.1
Todd Jones	Tigers	7	11	4.00	118	17	195.2	208	11	52	103	1.33	5.15
Brian Fuentes	Rockies	7	15	3.17	84	17	196.0	156	18	71	211	1.16	3.23
Trevor Hoffman	Padres	6	14	2.96	122	16	173.1	152	16	39	150	1.10	3.91
Billy Wagner	Mets	6	7	2.10	116	17	214.0	155	18	58	261	1.00	7.19